Friday, May 16, 2008

5/2008: AICPA views on fair value accounting

The Role of Fair Value Accounting in the Subprime Mortgage Meltdown
Three opinions in the May issue of AICPA's Journal of Accountancy

First the view "Both Sides Make Good Points" by Michael R. Young


    We’re all familiar with what happened. This past summer, two Bear Stearns funds ran into problems, and the result was increasing financial community uncertainty about the value of mortgage backed financial instruments, particularly collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). As investors tried to delve into the details of the value of CDO assets and the reliability of their cash flows, the extraordinary complexity of the instruments provided a significant impediment to insight into the underlying financial data.

    As a result, the markets seized. In other words, everyone got so nervous that active trading in many instruments all but stopped.

    The practical significance of the market seizure was all too apparent to both owners of the instruments and newspaper readers. What was largely missed behind the scenes, though, was the accounting significance under Statement no. 157, which puts in place a “fair value hierarchy” that prioritizes the inputs to valuation techniques according to their objectivity and observability (see also “Refining Fair Value Measurement,” JofA, Nov. 07, page 30). At the top of the hierarchy are “Level 1 inputs” which generally involve quoted prices in active markets. At the bottom are “Level 3 inputs” in which no active markets exist.

    The accounting significance of the market seizure for subprime financial instruments was that the approach to valuation for many instruments almost overnight dropped from Level 1 to Level 3. The problem was that, because many CDOs to that point had been valued based on Level 1, established models for valuing the instruments at Level 3 were not in place.
    ...
    [W]hen subprime instruments were trading in active, observable markets, valuation did not pose much of a problem. But that changed all too suddenly when active markets disappeared and valuation shifted to Level 3. At that point, valuation models needed to be deployed which might potentially be influenced by such things as the future of housing prices, the future of interest rates, and how homeowners could be expected to react to such things.
    ...
    Still, the subprime experience also demonstrates that there are two legitimate sides to this debate. For the difficulties in financial markets were not purely the consequences of an accounting system. They were, more fundamentally, the economic consequences of a market in which a bubble had burst.

    And advocates of fair value can point to one aspect of fair value accounting—and Statement no. 157 in particular—that is pretty much undeniable. It has given outside investors real-time insight into market gyrations of the sort that, under old accounting regimes, only insiders could see. True, trying to deal with those gyrations can be difficult and the consequences are not always desirable. But that is just another way of saying that ignorance is bliss.
Sabaziotatos says:

A little too much fence sitting. Young nevertheless offers the useful observation that, when the markets seized up, financial institutions did not have in place robust Level 3 models. See, for instance, Citigroup's comments in its most recent conference call: "The methodology that we use has been refined and the inputs have been modified to reflect current conditions. The two principal refinements and modifications this quarter are the use of a more direct method of calculating projected HPA and a more refined method for calculating the discount rate."

Now, for the view "The Capital Markets’ Needs Will Be Served: Fair value accounting limits bubbles rather than creates them" by Paul B.W. Miller


    The key to converging market and intrinsic values is understanding that more information, not less, is better. It does no good, and indeed does harm, to leave markets guessing. Reports must be informative and truthful, even if they’re not flattering.

    To this end, all must grasp that financial information is favorable if it unveils truth more completely and faithfully instead of presenting an illusory better appearance. Covering up bad news isn’t possible, especially over the long run, and discovered duplicity brings catastrophe.
Sabaziotatos says:

As with most arguments that defend fair value accounting, the problem here is that Miller asserts that what is required is more information and that fair value accounting provides that information, while ignoring the fact that fair value and mark-to-market accounting by its pro-cyclical nature distorts information. As Plantin, Sapra, and Shin have written: "While the historical cost regime leads to some inefficiencies, marking to market may lead to other types of inefficiencies by injecting artificial risk that degrades the information value of prices, and induces sub-optimal real decisions. ... In this way, the mark-to-market regime generates endogenous volatility of prices that impede the resource allocation role of prices."

Finally, the view "The Need for Reliability in Accounting: Why historical cost is more reliable than fair value" by Eugene H. Flegm


    HOW WE GOT HERE
    The debate over the need for any standards began with the 1929 market crash and the subsequent formation of the SEC. Initially, Congress intended that the chief accountant of the SEC would establish the necessary standards. However, Carmen Blough, the first SEC chief accountant, wanted the American Institute of Accountants (a predecessor to the AICPA) to do this. In 1937 he succeeded in convincing the SEC to do just that. The AICPA did this through an ad hoc committee for 22 years but finally established a more formal committee, the Accounting Principles Board, which functioned until it was deemed inadequate and FASB was formed in 1973.

    FASB’s first order of business was to establish a formal “constitution” as outlined by the report of the Trueblood Committee (Objectives of Financial Statements, AICPA, October 1973). With the influence of several academics on that committee, the thrust of the “constitution” was to move to a balance sheet view of income versus the income view which had arisen in the 1930s. Although the ultimate goal was never clarified, it was obvious to some, most notably Robert K. Mautz, who had served as a professor of accounting at the University of Illinois and partner in the accounting firm Ernst & Ernst (a predecessor to Ernst & Young) and finally a member of the Public Oversight Board and the Accounting Hall of Fame. Mautz realized then that the goal was fair value accounting and traveled the nation preaching that a revolution was being proposed. Several companies, notably General Motors and Shell Oil, led the opposition that continues to this day.

    The most recent statement on the matter was FASB’s 2006 publication of a preliminary views (PV) document called Conceptual Framework for Financial Reporting: Objective of Financial Reporting and Qualitative Characteristics of Decision-Useful Financial Reporting Information. It is clear that FASB has abandoned the real daily users who apply traditional accounting to manage their businesses. The PV document refers to investors and creditors only. It mentions the need for comparability and consistency but does not attempt to explain how this would be possible under fair value accounting since each manager would be required to make his or her own value judgments, which, of course, would not be comparable to any other company’s evaluations.
Sabaziotatos says:

Excellent brief overview of the historical development of fair value accounting and the coup carried out by those who place more emphasis on the balance sheet than the income statement (or, say, the cash flow of underlying securities).

5/7/2008: Understanding Fair Value

Excerpts from Understanding the Issues: Some Facts About Fair Value
By FASB Chairman Robert Herz and FASB Director Linda A. MacDonald

However, the main purpose of this article is not to debate the pros and cons of fair value accounting. Rather, it is to provide some basic facts about fair value accounting that are important in understanding the current debate. Specifically, (1) where fair value is (and where it is not) used in financial reporting currently, (2) what fair value is (and what it is not), and (3) the approach for developing fair value estimates, including in illiquid markets.
...
For an asset, the fair value estimate is determined by reference to the price that would be received in an orderly transaction for the asset at the measurement date (an exchange price notion), not, as some have asserted, the price that would be received in a fire sale or forced liquidation transaction for the asset at the measurement date. An orderly transaction is one that involves market participants that are willing to transact and allows for adequate exposure to the market before the measurement date. In contrast, a fire sale or forced liquidation transaction is one that involves market participants that are compelled to transact (under duress) and allows for little (or no) exposure to the market before the measurement date.
...
The fair value hierarchy prioritizes observable inputs over unobservable inputs. However, the weighting of the inputs in the fair value estimate will depend on the extent to which they provide information about the value of an asset or liability and are relevant in developing a reasonable estimate of a current exchange price for the asset or liability. In making that determination, many factors need to be considered. Examples include the following:

  • The extent to which observable inputs relate to transactions
    involving comparable assets or liabilities, considering both
    the nature of the transactions (orderly vs. forced) and the
    timing of the transactions (current vs. stale)

  • The magnitude and subjectivity of adjustments to the inputs

  • Factors specific to the market(s) in which the inputs are
    observed, such as a change in the volume of transactions and
    liquidity in a market that previously was active, a change in
    the availability of observable inputs, and a change in bid/ask
    spreads.

In some cases, for example, when there is little (or no) market activity for comparable assets or liabilities at the measurement date (illiquid markets) or when information about transactions involving comparable assets or liabilities is not publicly disclosed (principal-to-principal markets), the fair value estimate might rely principally on unobservable inputs (Level 3 estimates).

Sabaziotatos says:

This is an excellent article that provides much guidance from senior people at FASB on how to apply SFAS 157. This article is almost as useful as the SEC's Sample Letter Sent to Public Companies on MD&A Disclosure Regarding the Application of SFAS 157 (Fair Value Measurements) . In particular, FASB provides guidance on what to do in illiquid markets and more information on what an "orderly transaction" is.

5/11/2008: The fight over fair value

Excerpts from Gloves off on fair value
By Jeremy Woolfe

Signs of disharmony, verging on disarray, are emerging in the world of accountancy regulation over fair value reporting and its alleged potential to trigger a downward spiral in asset values.
...
The IASB’s consistent position of upholding the gold standard of fair value, as covered mainly by IAS 39, was reflected at a recent meeting with the US Financial Accounting Standards Board and the British Corporate Reporting Users’ Forum.

Reflecting the views of professional investors, the Cruf members said they “prefer fair value”, but also expressed concern about the reliability of their valuation models. Additionally, they admitted “fair value might be pro-cyclic, but that this would not be the real issue”. One example of what was “real” was need for cash flow data.

Putting pressure on the regulators from the other side of the fence are the banks. The International Banking Federation notes in a press release “that a mixed measurement model [for reporting financial instruments] is essential for the faithful representation of an entity’s business model”. Other banking institutions, including the European Banking Federation, endorses the view that fair value should not “always be an exit price”.

Tuesday, May 6, 2008

3/31/2008: Nouriel Roubini on mark-to-market accounting

Excerpts from Ten Fundamental Issues in Reforming Financial Regulation and Supervision in a World of Financial Innovation and Globalization
By Nouriel Roubini

Seventh, there are fundamental accounting issues on how to value securities, especially in periods of market volatility and illiquidity when the fundamental long term value of the asset differs from its market price. The current “fair value” approach to valuation stresses the use of mark-to-market valuation where, as much as possible, market prices should be used to value assets, whether they are illiquid or not.

There are two possible situations where mark-to-market accounting may distort valuations: first, when there are bubbles and market values may be above fundamental values; second, when bubbles burst and, because of market illiquidity, asset prices are potentially below fundamental values. The latter case has become a concern in the latest episode of market turmoil as mark-to-market accounting may force excessive writedowns and margin calls that may lead to further fire sales of illiquid assets; these, in turn, could cause a cascading fall in asset prices well below their long term fundamental value. However, mark-to-market accounting may also create serious distortions during bubbles when its use may lead to excessive leverage as high valuation allow[s] investors to borrow more and leverage more and feed even further the asset bubble. In either case, mark-to-market accounting leads to pro-cyclical capital bank capital requirement given the way that the Basel II capital accord is designed.

The shortcomings of mark-to-market valuation are known but the main issue is whether one can find an alternative that is not subject to gaming by financial institutions. Some have suggested the use of historical cost to value assets (where assets are booked at the price at which they were bought); others have proposed the use of a discounted cash flow (DCF) model where long run fundamentals – cash flows – would have a greater role. However, historical cost does not seem to be an appropriate way to value assets. The use of a DCF model may seem more appealing but it is not without flaws either. How to properly estimate future cash flows? Which discount rate to apply to such cash flows? How to avoid a situation where those using this model to value asset[s] subjectively game the model to achieve the valuations that they want as the value of the asset in a DCF model strongly depend on assumptions about future cash flows and the appropriate discount factor? Possibly mark-to-market may be a better approach when securities are held in a trading portfolio while DCF may be a more appropriate approach when such securities a[re] held as a long term investment, i.e. until maturity. But the risk of a DCF approach is that different firms will value very differently identical assets and that firms will use any approach different from mark-to-market to manipulate their financial results.

The other difficult problem that one has to consider is that any suspension of mark-to-market accounting in periods of volatility would reduce – rather than enhance – investors’ confidence in financial institutions. Part of the recent turmoil and increase in risk aversion can be seen as an investors’ backlash against an opaque and nontransparent financial system where investors cannot properly know what is the size of the losses experienced by financial institutions and who is holding the toxic waste. Mark-to-market accounting at least imposes some discipline and transparency; moving away from it may further reduce the confidence of investors as it would lead to even less transparency.

Some suggest that the problem is not mark-to-market accounting but the pro-cyclical capital requirements of Basel II; that is correct. But even without such pro-cyclical distortions there is a risk that financial institutions – not just banks - would retrench leverage and credit too much and too fast during periods of turmoil when they become more risk averse. Thus, the issue remains open of whether there are forms of regulatory forbearance - that are not destructive of confidence - that can be used in periods of turmoil in order to avoid a cascading and destructive fall in asset prices. But certainly solutions should be symmetric, i.e applied both during periods of rising asset prices and bubbles (when market prices are above fundamentals) and when such bubbles go bust (and asset prices may fall below fundamentals). But so far there is no clear and sensible alternative to mark-to-market accounting.

Monday, May 5, 2008

4/1/2008: CMSA calls for CMBX trading data

Excerpts from CMSA Calls for Greater Transparency in Trading Data
Commercial Mortgage Securities Association (CMSA), the leading voice of the commercial real estate capital market finance industry, last week requested that trading data on the CMBX Index, including total volume and number of daily trades, be made publicly available in order to increase market transparency. CMSA made the request in a letter to Markit, the administrator of the CMBX Index, a synthetic credit default swap derivatives index introduced in March 2006.

CMSA, an industry organization dedicated to promoting the ongoing strength, liquidity and integrity of commercial real estate capital market finance worldwide, has been instrumental in increasing the transparency in the structured credit markets.

"Public disclosure of derivatives trading data in the CMBX Index would provide an invaluable service to investors in the commercial real estate capital market finance arena," said Leonard W. Cotton, Vice Chairman of Centerline Capital Group and President of CMSA. "We believe the volatility in the CMBX index caused by momentum traders, rather than fundamental traders, distorts the true picture of the value of CMBS bonds, which are backed by the cash flows from loans on income-producing commercial real estate."

"Given the role the Index has come to play in determining the ‘mark-to-market’ value of securities held by financial institutions in the current market environment, greater transparency on CMBX trading volumes and the number of daily trades would aid investors in assessing the merit of values as indicated by the Index," Cotton added.

Dottie Cunningham, CEO of CMSA, expressed concern that the Index is not indicative of the underlying fundamentals of the investment product. "In a volatile market, this mark-to-market process becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, driving prices down based on index trading activity rather than asset fundamentals," she said. "Some market participants may be relying on what we believe is a distorted value that perpetuates the current cycle of no issuance, erroneous spread widening and additional mark-to-market write downs."

4/10/2008: Bernanke on mark-to-market accounting

Excerpts from Bernanke: mark-to-market accounting challenging
Reuters story on question-and-answer session after Ben Bernanke's Richmond speech

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said on Thursday mark-to-market accounting has helped to destabilize markets for illiquid assets, but regulators need to be careful about any changes to the system.

"It's also true in the current context, that mark-to-market accounting has been sometimes destabilizing in that sales of assets into very illiquid markets had led to reductions in prices, which have caused writedowns which have sometimes caused firesales, and you get into an adverse dynamic which has caused problems in some of our markets," Bernanke said in a question-and-answer session before a business group,

On balance, he said mark-to-market accounting has been a positive influence for investors, but valuations should be determined during normally functioning, stable markets, not times when assets are illiquid.

5/5/2008: REIT Wrecks

REIT Wrecks is an interesting blog that discusses the commerical real estate market. A number of the entries discuss the impact of mark to market accounting on commercial real estate and CMBS's.