Wednesday, June 11, 2008

6/11/2008: Accounting rule-makers putting markets at risk

Excerpt from Accounting rule-makers putting markets at risk
By Michael Starkie, chief accountant at BP for the past 14 years and for some years chairman of the UK's CBI Financial Reporting Panel and a member of the European Financial Reporting Advisory Group (EFRAG) Technical Expert Group
    [T]he future looks even bleaker. The International Accounting Standards Board continues to develop an accounting model about which users of financial information have grave misgivings. Probably the most disturbing example is the use of predominantly mark-to-model exit values in the balance sheet, which cannot be relevant for a market trying to assess the economic performance and position of companies that have the intention of continuing to operate as going concerns.
The accompanying story in the Financial Times expands on Mr. Starkie's concerns:
    Mr Starkie’s views also reflect a long-running concern among many accountants and investors about the focus of some IASB members on developing a coherent theoretical accounting framework without due regard for business practicalities. The danger, they fear, is that if accounting becomes less reflective of companies’ operations, investors could lose trust in published accounts, which would raise the cost of capital for companies and upset financial markets.

    This has come to the fore in the ongoing fight over “fair value” accounting, where assets and liabilities are reported at their current market price. While most accept this for frequently-traded financial instruments, there are fears that some IASB members want to extend the concept to assets for which there are no markets, potentially forcing companies to produce hypothetical values.

    “Ironically, that would introduce a degree of guesstimation into financial numbers that if it were companies who called for it, they’d get howled down with derision for wanting to fix the numbers,” said Mr Starkie in an interview with the FT. The IASB has said it has no intention of extending the practice.

Monday, June 9, 2008

6/9/2008: ABX overstates subprime losses, says BIS

Excerpts from BIS Quarterly Review, June 2008

Estimating valuation losses on subprime MBS with the ABX HE index — some potential pitfalls

Repeated large-scale writedowns of exposures to the US mortgage market and continuing deterioration of the US housing sector have given rise to strong public and private sector interest in estimates of overall subprime-related losses. In this context, particular attention has been devoted to estimated market value changes for subprime mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and how these compare to disclosed writedowns by banks and other investors. A key source of data for such estimates has been the ABX HE series of indices based on credit default swaps (CDS) with subprime exposure. This box conducts a simple analysis of valuation losses on subprime MBS on the basis of ABX prices and highlights a number of possible limitations of such estimates. In particular, it is argued that past estimates of total valuation losses at the AAA level may have been inflated by more than 60%. ... [U]sing newly available data for MBS tranches with shorter durations, the $119 billion of losses implied by the ABX AAA indices as of end-May would be some 62% larger than those implied under more realistic assumptions.

Friday, June 6, 2008

6/6/2008: SEC investigates AIG's valuation of CDS's

Excerpt from SEC, Justice Scrutinize AIG on Swaps Accounting
By Amir Efrati and Liam Plevin

"At issue is the way the company valued credit default swaps, which are contracts that insure against default of securities, including those backed by subprime mortgages. In February, AIG said its auditor had found a "material weakness" in its accounting."

Sabaziotatos says:

If we have learned anything over the last year, it is that fair value accounting for credit default swaps is highly controversial and that valuations resulting from market inputs (whether Level 1 observable or Level 3 unobservable) are suspect. This blog has documented AIG's legitimate efforts to get the SEC and FASB to change the accounting for CDS's.

This is another blow dealt the American (and global) financial system by overzealous fair value accounting theorists and Spitzeresque prosecutors.